Well, wasn’t 2016 eventful. The ups and downs of Brexit, the
Queen’s 90th, Andy Murray winning Wimbledon, Trump, Bake Off to Channel 4 and
something close to the hearts of every buy to let landlord and homeowner in Canterbury
... the Canterbury property market.
So, let’s look at the headlines for the Canterbury property market...
In the last month, Canterbury property values rose by 0.81%,
leaving them, year on year 9.9% higher, whilst interestingly, Canterbury asking
prices are down 2.0% month on month. All three statistics go to show the Canterbury
property market has recovered well after the summer lull, which was worsened by
the uncertainty surrounding the EU vote back in June. Irrespective of all the
issues, the average value of a Canterbury home now stands at £346,400.
Generally, Canterbury asking prices continue to hold up
well, as asking prices are 4.7% higher year on year. Asking prices tend to drop
on the run up to Christmas and locally, they dropped by 2.0% last month
(December 2016), although this still compares well with last year’s drop in Canterbury
asking prices, as we saw asking prices drop by 1.1% in December 2015.
Now it’s true to say, after chatting with fellow property professionals
in Canterbury, all of us have seen the number of property sales fall slightly,
suggesting a slowing market, but it is very early days and it could be the time
of year. Also, the numbers are limited, so it’s interesting to take note from a
recent survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, stating new
buyer enquiries and new instructions are falling at the same rate, suggesting
that there will not be a downward pressure on property values.
Looking at the figures for the UK (as we can’t just look at Canterbury
in isolation), property values are generally rising slower than a few years ago,
but on a positive note, there's still growth across the UK. You see, slowing property
value growth isn't solely Brexit related, but after a number years of
double digit rises in property values, affordability has weakened and cooling
price growth is widely seen to be a natural correction of the market.
On the other hand, interest rates being at a record low of
0.25% are helping the property market. The cut in interest rates in the late summer
was the medicine for the post-Brexit worry and will, as a consequence, ensure
that the UK economy continues to be underpinned by buoyant property prices.
So, what will happen in 2017 in the Canterbury property
market?
Some say until we know what type of exit the UK will make
from the EU it is hard to evaluate the outcome. Although, I believe, the whole
Brexit issue is a sideshow to the main issue in the UK (and Canterbury) housing
market as a whole. As I have mentioned time and time again over the last few
months, the biggest issue is demand outstripping supply when it comes to the
number of households required to house us all. Canterbury has an ever-growing
population: with immigration (we still have at least two years of free movement
from EU members into the UK), people living longer and the fact we need thousands
of additional households as the country has nearly 115,000 divorces a year
(where one household becomes two households).
These are interesting times ahead!
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