Tuesday, 26 July 2016

93% of Canterbury Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Canterbury Property Market



Well it’s been nearly 5 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took.
 
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Canterbury City Council area went with the National mood and voted as follows ….
 
Canterbury City Council   Remain Votes    40,169  (49% of the vote)
Canterbury City Council   Leave Votes       41,879  (51% of the vote)

               Canterbury City Council Turnout       75%
 
I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Canterbury resident is 40 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Canterbury voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
 
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the Canterbury City Council area, of the 40,605 properties that are owned in the Canterbury City Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.
 
Age 16 to 34 homeowners  2,825    or        6.9%  (Nationally 9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 10,079    or      24.8%  (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 12,734    or      31.4%  (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners      14,967    or      36.8%  (Nationally 30.5%)
 
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Canterbury City Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?
 
But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!