I was having an interesting chat with a Canterbury
Buy to Let landlord the other day when the subject of size of households came
up in conversation. For those of you who
read my Brexit article published on the morning after the referendum, one of
the reasons on why I thought the Canterbury property market would, in the
medium to long term, be OK, was the fact that the size of households in the 21st
Century was getting smaller – which would create demand for Canterbury Property
and therefore keep property prices from dropping.
Looking at the stats going back to the
early 1960’s, when the average number of people in a home was exactly 3, it has
steadily over the years dropped by a fifth to today’s figure of 2.4 people per
household. Doesn’t sound a lot, but if the population remained at the same
level for the next 50 years and then we had the same 20% drop in household
size, the UK would need to build an additional 5.28 million properties (or
105,769 per year) .. When you consider the Country is only building 139,800
properties a year ... it doesn’t leave much for people living longer and immigration.
Looking closer to home...
In the Canterbury City Council area, the
average
number of occupants per household is 2.3
people
When we look at the current picture
nationally and split it down into tenure types (i.e. owned, council houses and
private renting, a fascinating picture appears.
The vast majority of homeowners who don’t
have a mortgage are occupied by one or two people (81% in fact), although this
can be explained as residents being older, with some members of the family
having moved out, or a pensioner living alone.
People living on their own are more likely to live in a Council house
(43%) and the largest households (those with 4 or more people living in them
are homeowners with a mortgage – but again, that can be explained as homeowners
with families tend to need a mortgage to buy. What surprised me was the even
spread of private rented households and how that sector of population is so
evenly spread across the occupant range – in fact that sector is the closest to
the national average, even though they only represent a sixth of the population.
When we look at the Canterbury City Council
figures for all tenures (Owned, Council and Private Rented) a slightly
different picture appears...
But it gets even more interesting when we
focus on just private rental properties in Canterbury, as it is the rental
market in Canterbury that really fascinates me. When I analysed those Canterbury
City Council private rental household composition figures, a slightly different
picture appears. Of the 10,665 Private rental properties in the Canterbury City
Council area,
27.6% of Private Rental Properties are 1
person Households
28.8% of Private Rental Properties are 2
person Households
17.5% of Private Rental Properties are 3
person Households
15.9% of Private Rental Properties are 4
person Households
10% of Private Rental Properties are 5+
person Households
As you can see, Canterbury is not too
dissimilar from the national picture but there is story to tell. If you are
considering future buy to let purchases in the coming 12 to 18 months, I would
seriously consider looking at 1 and 2 bed apartments. Even with the numbers
stated, there are simply not enough 1 and 2 bed apartments to meet the demand.
They have to be in the right part of Canterbury and priced realistically, but
they will always let and when you need to sell, irrespective of market
conditions at the time, will always be the target of buyers. To read more
articles on the Canterbury Property Market and where I consider best buy to let
deals are in Canterbury, please visit the Canterbury Property Market Blog www.canterburypropertyblog.com
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