Canterbury house prices up or Canterbury house prices down?
... and if so, by how much? Those of you who read the Canterbury Property Blog
will know I am not the sort of person who pulls punches nor someone who ever
fails to give a forthright and straight talking opinion – so here are my
thoughts for the 9,236 Canterbury homeowners and landlords.
The average Canterbury property is 8.2% higher today than it
was a year ago, which doesn’t sound a lot, but when you consider inflation is
currently running at -0.1% (i.e. consumer/retail prices are dropping) and
average salary growth is only around 2.5% pa, this is bad news for first time
buyers as property affordability continues to decrease (although I was reading
in The Times the other day that wage inflation (i.e. salary growth) is showing
signs of weakening).
Some commentators have said the higher stamp duty taxes
announced a few months ago in the Autumn Statement for buy to let landlords, concerns
over first time buyer affordability and the outlook of UK interest rate rises
in 2016 will really dampen the property market. I hope you all read my previous
article about what the new stamp duty rule changes would REALLY mean for Canterbury
landlords in my blog, but I believe the real issue in the Canterbury property
market is the shortage of property to buy, as people either worry there will be
no suitable house to move to, or cannot afford to upgrade. However, on the
supply side, Mr Osborne said in his Autumn Statement that he will change the planning
laws to ensure the government meets the pledge made at the General Election
(back in May) of 200,000 new homes a year.
All I can say is .. good luck George hitting those numbers!
Why? Because houses take years to build .. not months .. so George
and his fabled house building aside .... where does that leave us in Canterbury
in 2016?
Well, talking of supply ... whilst Mr Osborne builds his
properties (and let’s be honest - a week doesn’t go by without him being filmed
on a building site with a high viz jacket and hard hat building a house here
and there!), let us look at the shortage of properties for sale. Back in February
2011, 443 properties were for sale in Canterbury .. today that figure is 273.
On the face of it, this means there is less choice for Canterbury buyers – but
it also means with a restricted supply of properties for sale .. it keeps
property prices high for Canterbury house sellers.
Everything isn’t all doom and gloom though ... again back in
February 2011, the average property in Canterbury took 115 days to find a buyer
.. latest figures state this has dropped to 89 days .. a drop of 23% in how
long it takes to find a buyer. However, when you delve even deeper, the best
performing type of property today in Canterbury is the 4 bed, which only takes 70
days to find a buyer (on average) compared to the 2 bed, which takes 104 days. It
just goes to show, even though the average has dropped since 2011, how varied
that change has been!
So, back to the question everyone is asking .... What will
happen to property values in Canterbury in 2016? I am going to suggest they will rise between 7%
and 8% ... nothing out of the ordinary, but unless something cataclysmic
happens in the world, 2016 will be like 2015! For more thoughts, opinions and
views on the Canterbury property market, visit the Canterbury Property Blog – www.canterburypropertyblog.com
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