Prices up, prices down, prices stable...
the newspapers are full of good news, bad news and indifferent news about the
Brit’s favourite subject after the weather... the property market. The thing is
the UK does not have one housing market. Instead, it is a patchwork of mini
property markets all performing in a different way. At one end of scale is London, which has seen
average prices grow in the last twelve months by a shade under 19% (and again
that is an average because some Borough’s in London have risen by 26%) whilst
in the land of Daffodils, by contrast, Wales only saw a 2% increase in property
values (although in the Merthyr Valleys they dropped by over 11%).
Well we can’t ignore the rest of
the UK, and we can’t forget that the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty reforms have
polarised the London property markets above £1,000,000 because at the top end
of the market, punitive Stamp Duty charges will dampen demand further. While
the Bank of England warned of the growing London property price bubble in the Spring
of 2014, even talk of a recovery in some areas was premature. In 2015,
irrespective of where you are in the UK, one story will unite the patchwork quilt
of markets – really slow property value growth.
But what about Canterbury? Well,
we haven’t had the February figures from the Land Registry yet but the last few
months’ activity and prices achieved would suggest neither house price growth
nor drops. In fact, most sellers are
buyers anyway, so if you need to take less for yours, you won’t have to pay as
much for the one you want to buy ... and that is good news for everyone as most
move up market when they move. This is even better for landlord investors, as
they can bag a bargain as well.
The question you should be asking
though is not only is what happening to property prices, but which price band
exactly is selling? I like to keep an eye on the property market in Canterbury
on a daily basis because it enables me to give the best advice and opinion on
what (or not) to buy in Canterbury.
If you look at Canterbury and
split the property market into four equalled sized (into terms of households)
price bands. Each price band would have around 25% of the property in Canterbury,
from the lowest in value (the bottom 25%) all the way through to the highest
25% (in terms of value). Over the last
two months (63 days to be precise), in the lowest quartile, (those with asking
prices under £180k) 60 properties have come onto the market in Canterbury and 35%
of them (21 properties have a buyer and sold stc. The next quartile, between £180k
to £230k, of the 63 properties that come on to the market, 38% of them (24
properties) have a buyer. The £230k-£305k price range has seen 47 properties
come on to the market, and 42.5% of the properties have a buyer (20
properties). The most expensive 25%, the £305k plus range, has seen 19 of the 58
properties that came on to the market find buyers (32.7%). Fascinating don’t
you think?
The next three months’ activity
will be crucial in understanding which way the market will go this year and I
honestly believe we will not see any house price growth or drops this side of
the election. Election or no election, people will always need a roof over
their head and that is why the property market has rode the storms of Oil
crisis in the 1970’s, the 1980’s depression, Black Monday in the 1990’s, and latterly
the Credit Crunch together with the various house price crashes of 1973, 1987
and 2008.
And why? Because of Britain’s
chronic lack of housing will prop up house prices and prevent a post spike
crash. ... there is always a silver lining when it comes to the property
market!
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